With just a week left for the high-stakes Maharashtra elections, both the ruling Mahayuti alliance and the opposition MVA are leaving no stone unturned in their efforts to win the maximum seats they are contesting.
From conducting massive rallies to making inflated poll promises, for power-hungry parties in Maharashtra, this election is a do-or-die battle.
For Shiv Sena (UBT), it is a fight to protect their existence and identity; for Shinde’s Sena, it is a struggle to prove that they are the true torchbearers of Bal Thackeray’s ideology. For Sharad Pawar’s NCP, it is a challenge to prevent his nephew Ajit Pawar’s NCP from emerging as a kingmaker. For the BJP, it is a mission not only to regain lost ground during the Lok Sabha elections and reclaim the CM’s chair but also to set a national narrative of Hindutva. For the Congress, it is a battle against its ideological opponent, the BJP, and a chance to build on its performance in the Lok Sabha elections while making inroads into the BJP’s substantial gains across the country.
While the race for power is intense and the arithmetic complex, let’s analyse the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats for Shiv Sena (UBT), which is contesting 96 seats in Maharashtra, of which 22 are in Mumbai.
औसा, उमरगा, धाराशिव, बार्शी विधानसभा
जेव्हा तुमच्या पाठीशी कोणी नसतं, तेव्हा जे तुमच्यासोबत असतात, त्यांना कुटुंब नाही तर काय म्हणायचं? आज माझ्याकडे काही नसतानाही तुमचा माझ्यावर विश्वास आहे! pic.twitter.com/KJGlMFithc
— ShivSena – शिवसेना Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray (@ShivSenaUBT_) November 13, 2024
Strengths:
Legacy and established base
Shiv Sena (UBT) has a strong foundation in the regions of Mumbai, Konkan, Marathwada, and North Maharashtra, built on the legacy of party founder Bal Thackeray and the work done by its leaders over the years. For Uddhav Thackeray, this election is a litmus test to establish himself as the rightful heir to his father’s political legacy—a valuable asset, especially among voters who see the Thackeray family as the true guardians of Shiv Sena’s ideology and values. This deep-rooted association with Maharashtra’s regional pride and identity gives the party a solid base and offers voters a chance to choose Uddhav as their leader.
Strong organisational network
The party also benefits from the robust organisational network established during Bal Thackeray’s lifetime. Veteran party workers and local leaders are actively reaching voters in every corner with Uddhav Thackeray’s message to “defeat the traitors.” They aim to expose the alleged corruption by the ruling alliance and argue that the Chief Minister and Sena MLAs broke away from the party for personal gain, betraying not only Uddhav but also Bal Thackeray’s ideology and vision for Maharashtra. Success in these efforts could position Shiv Sena (UBT) as a leading contender for the top post.
Sympathy card
Uddhav Thackeray, the former Maharashtra Chief Minister, hopes to gain sympathy from core party voters, believing that workers from the undivided Shiv Sena are unhappy with Eknath Shinde’s revolt. In his speeches, Uddhav emphasises his vision for Maharashtra while urging voters to protect the party’s identity and show Shinde’s faction who the true Shiv Sainiks are. In the recent Lok Sabha elections, the two Senas clashed in 13 seats, with Uddhav’s faction winning seven seats and the Shinde-led faction winning six.
Secular image and inclusivity
Under Uddhav’s leadership, Shiv Sena (UBT) has shifted to a more moderate, secular approach, moving away from the hardline Hindutva stance traditionally associated with the party. This shift, especially during Thackeray’s tenure as Chief Minister in alliance with Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), has broadened its appeal to a more diverse demographic, including Dalits and Muslims who appreciate secularism and inclusivity. This evolution may attract voters interested in development and progressive ideas over communal divides.
Experienced leadership and governance record
Uddhav’s tenure as Chief Minister showcased his leadership, particularly in handling the COVID-19 pandemic. While opposition parties criticise his performance, Uddhav’s administration focused on public welfare, economic stability, and healthcare, reinforcing his image as a capable leader. This experience of serving as CM strengthens the party’s credibility, positioning Shiv Sena (UBT) as a reliable option for voters who value stability and governance over the polarising rhetoric of the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance.
Youth and middle-class support
Shiv Sena (UBT)’s urban-focused approach, led by Aaditya Thackeray, has helped attract youth and middle-class voters, particularly in Mumbai and surrounding regions. Aaditya’s emphasis on environmental protection, sustainable urban development, and youth empowerment resonates with younger, educated demographics. His prominence as a progressive voice further enhances the party’s appeal among this group.
युवासेनाप्रमुख शिवसेना नेते आमदार आदित्य ठाकरे ह्यांचा भायखळा विधानसभा दौरा! pic.twitter.com/CMPS9FniN7
— ShivSena – शिवसेना Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray (@ShivSenaUBT_) November 13, 2024
Strategic alliances and flexibility
Shiv Sena (UBT)’s alliance with Congress and NCP under the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) places it within a united opposition front against the BJP. The coalition allows the party to consolidate anti-BJP votes and enhances its standing in key regions. Initially given 85 seats to contest, Sena UBT successfully increased its count to 96 through negotiations with its alliance partners.
Weaknesses:
Split and leadership challenge
The Shiv Sena split led by Eknath Shinde’s defection has weakened Shiv Sena (UBT)’s grassroots structure, with a significant faction joining Shinde. In 2022, 36 of Uddhav’s MLAs sided with Shinde, who was subsequently appointed Maharashtra’s Chief Minister. This divide risks confusing traditional Shiv Sena supporters, potentially weakening the party’s ability to mobilise its base effectively.
Loss of traditional Hindutva voters
Uddhav’s move to a more inclusive stance has alienated hardcore Hindutva voters, who now lean toward the BJP and Shinde’s faction. This shift poses a challenge to Shiv Sena (UBT)’s traditional base, particularly in rural and conservative areas where Hindu nationalist sentiments are strong. Retaining these voters without compromising its new secular image remains a significant hurdle.
Dependency on MVA alliance
Shiv Sena (UBT)’s reliance on the Congress and NCP through the MVA limits its autonomy. While the alliance consolidates opposition votes, ideological differences between Congress and NCP could cause internal friction on core policy issues. Some Shiv Sena (UBT) supporters view the alliance as a departure from the party’s core values, potentially affecting its authenticity.
Limited influence in rural Maharashtra
Shiv Sena (UBT)’s support is primarily urban, especially in Mumbai. Its limited reach in rural Maharashtra, where the BJP and Congress dominate, may restrict its statewide appeal and hinder its performance in rural constituencies, which are vital in Maharashtra’s assembly elections.
Perception of political opportunism
The party’s ideological shift has drawn criticism of political opportunism. Some voters view its transition from a hardline Hindutva stance to an alliance with Congress and NCP as inconsistent, alienating parts of the electorate who see this as a departure from Shiv Sena’s ideological roots.
Challenges in leadership transition
The party’s reliance on the Thackeray family, particularly Uddhav and Aaditya, reveals a lack of decentralisation. Without a strong second line of leadership, the party may struggle to expand its influence and withstand factional pressures.
Opportunities:
Growing urban voter base
With rapid urbanization in Maharashtra, Shiv Sena (UBT) can deepen its influence among urban voters. A focus on infrastructure, environmental sustainability, and public welfare aligns with urban interests, potentially attracting more support.
Expanding alliance network
By strengthening and expanding its alliance network, Shiv Sena (UBT) can better consolidate the anti-BJP vote, potentially through closer coordination with regional allies or smaller parties.
Threats:
Competition from BJP and Shinde faction
The BJP’s partnership with Shinde’s faction is a major threat. Shinde’s faction, claiming the Hindutva legacy, presents stiff competition for traditional Shiv Sena voters.
Internal tensions within MVA
Differences with Congress and NCP over policy and seat-sharing could lead to conflicts within the MVA, potentially weakening the alliance in a post-election scenario when the contest for power intensifies.
As Maharashtra prepares for assembly elections, Shiv Sena (UBT)’s strengths—from its legacy to its moderate governance—position it as a strong contender. However, it faces challenges from competition with the BJP and Shinde faction, as well as complexities within the MVA alliance. How Shiv Sena (UBT) navigates these dynamics will be crucial in shaping its electoral performance and ability to fight back. Will it be able to protect its existence & identity if results go awry? We will have to wait and watch after the results are declared on November 23.
